Developing the bullwhip effect measure in a supply chain considering seasonal demand and stochastic lead time

The bullwhip effect means the phenomenon of increasing demand variation as moving up to the upstream in the supply chain. Therefore, it is recognized that the bullwhip effect is problematic for effective supply chain operations. In this paper, we exactly quantifies the bullwhip effect for the case of stochastic lead time and seasonal demand in two-echelon supply chain where retailer employs a base-stock policy considering ARMA demand processes and stochastic lead time. We also investigate the behavior of the proposed measurement for the bullwhip effect with autoregressive and moving average coefficient, stochastic lead time, and seasonal factor.