Article ID: | iaor20102664 |
Volume: | 30 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 421 |
End Page Number: | 431 |
Publication Date: | Mar 2010 |
Journal: | Risk Analysis |
Authors: | She Shengxiang, Ma Chaoqun, Wu Desheng Dash |
This article proposes an intertemporal risk-value (IRV) model that integrates probability-time tradeoff, time-value tradeoff, and risk-value tradeoff into one unified framework. We obtain a general probability-time tradeoff, which yields a formal representation form to reflect the psychological distance of a decisionmaker in evaluating a temporal lottery. This intuition of probability-time tradeoff is supported by robust empirical findings as well as by psychological theory. Through an explicit formalization of probability-time tradeoff, an IRV model taking into account three fundamental dimensions, namely, value, probability, and time, is established. The object of evaluation in our framework is a complex lottery. We also give some insights into the structure of the IRV model using a wildcatter problem.