Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution

Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20101196
Volume: 26
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 11
End Page Number: 18
Publication Date: Jan 2010
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

In the field of election forecasting, France is a lead case. Recently, however, certain modelers stumbled badly in their efforts to forecast the 2007 presidential election. The difficulty appears due partly to the single-equation format that has constrained past work, and partly to a failure to fully appreciate how key standard independent variables should be measured in the French context. As a potential remedy, we offer a multi-equation model, where the first equation gives strict emphasis to prediction, the second equation to explanation. By various statistical tests, this recursive system of equations manages the forecasting of Fifth Republic presidential elections remarkably well.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.