Optimization of ship evacuation procedures as part of tsunami preparation

The current low levels of tsunami preparation efforts might result in unexpected consequences, as a strong tsunami would cause numerous vessels tied up at conventional piers to lose their moorings, crash against each other, or strike any number of infrastructure objects in the Osaka Port area. Currently, Japanese guidelines only stipulate that all ships must evacuate port immediately upon receipt of a tsunami warning, but do not describe the locations that are affected, or provide workable procedures. The high levels of traffic in Osaka Port waters, and the undeveloped state of current ship evacuation procedures will inevitably lengthen the time needed for ships to depart the harbour. In this paper, the development of appropriate ship evacuation procedures is evaluated based on Discrete Event Simulation by taking several possible scenarios into consideration. Our analysis has resulted in several predictions related to ship evacuation times based on the above-mentioned scenarios.