Re-considering aggregated data bias by extending ‘Koyck model’ of advertising effect

‘How does advertising affect sales?’ is the fundamental issue of modern advertising research. There is an interesting issue for estimating carryover effects of advertising on sales, and the aggregated data biases exist in the duration of advertising effect. This research suggests an extended model of Koyck Model which is employed for micro-data (Koyck 1954) to estimate aggregated advertising data, and empirically shows the aggregated data bias. Our developed model with the aggregated level of actual advertising data is more appropriate than the basic Koyck model for micro-data. The result figures out that it is important to consider the disaggregated data level in the analysis of dynamic effects of adverting such as carryover effects.