| Article ID: | iaor1988651 |
| Country: | Switzerland |
| Volume: | 16 |
| Start Page Number: | 117 |
| End Page Number: | 130 |
| Publication Date: | Dec 1988 |
| Journal: | Annals of Operations Research |
| Authors: | Jungermann H., Thring M. |
| Keywords: | scenario analysis and planning |
A conceptual framework is proposed for understanding and analysing the cognitive processes involved in the intuitive generation of scenarios. Four stages are distinguished: The activation of relevant problem knowledge, the constitution of a mental model, the simulation of the mental model, and the selection of inferences. The approach is illustrated and examples from a project on the future impacts of new information and communication technology on private life.