Article ID: | iaor1988651 |
Country: | Switzerland |
Volume: | 16 |
Start Page Number: | 117 |
End Page Number: | 130 |
Publication Date: | Dec 1988 |
Journal: | Annals of Operations Research |
Authors: | Jungermann H., Thring M. |
Keywords: | scenario analysis and planning |
A conceptual framework is proposed for understanding and analysing the cognitive processes involved in the intuitive generation of scenarios. Four stages are distinguished: The activation of relevant problem knowledge, the constitution of a mental model, the simulation of the mental model, and the selection of inferences. The approach is illustrated and examples from a project on the future impacts of new information and communication technology on private life.