The labyrinth of experts’ minds: Some reasoning strategies and their pitfalls

The labyrinth of experts’ minds: Some reasoning strategies and their pitfalls

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Article ID: iaor1988651
Country: Switzerland
Volume: 16
Start Page Number: 117
End Page Number: 130
Publication Date: Dec 1988
Journal: Annals of Operations Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: scenario analysis and planning
Abstract:

A conceptual framework is proposed for understanding and analysing the cognitive processes involved in the intuitive generation of scenarios. Four stages are distinguished: The activation of relevant problem knowledge, the constitution of a mental model, the simulation of the mental model, and the selection of inferences. The approach is illustrated and examples from a project on the future impacts of new information and communication technology on private life.

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