Article ID: | iaor1992609 |
Country: | Austria |
Volume: | 1991 (Jun), 3704501077, 118 pp., 10.00, RR-91 |
Start Page Number: | 225 |
End Page Number: | 239 |
Publication Date: | Aug 1991 |
Journal: | IIASA Reports |
Authors: | Gruebler Arnulf, Nakicenovic Nebojsa |
In this report the authors develop a scenario for future developments in the transport sector and their implications for future demand. In developing a comprehensive mode-space-time coverage of the evolution of transport systems, the analysis indicates that present transport systems are approaching a number of limits: market saturation in leading countries and an increasing awareness of the social and environmental disbenefits associated with a further intensification in the use of present-day oil-based transport systems. The report describes an innovative scenario from a historical perspective, taking into account a number of institutional and physical constraints to significant future increases in the car population and air travel demand at the global level.