Integrating multiple long-range transport models into optimization methodologies for acid rain policy analysis

This paper addresses certain complications inherent in developing efficient acid rain control strategies given that the present knowledge of the physics and chemistry of long-range pollutant transport and transformation is imprecise. This imprecision (or uncertainy) translates, in a sense, into risk. An attempt is made here to demonstrate that there are currently available methods to better define this risk and provide a basis for decision-making. More specifically, these methods involve chance-constrained stochastic programming techniques. A distinguishing characteristic of the approach is the present use of the output from multiple long-range transport models to develop probabilistic descriptors of transport/transformation phenomena.