Decision-making process under uncertainty in international investments in offshore exploration & production of petroleum: a multicriteria approach

This paper presents the theoretical developments in techniques of decision-making analysis in petroleum exploration and production projects, from economic evaluation using Discount Cash Flow up to and including a presentation of the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), which enables consideration of typical risks and uncertainties in international petroleum upstream investments in a new competitive situation among firms. Finally, a case study of the MAUT was developed and applied to define priorities among ten offshore exploration opportunities around the world offered to a fictitious Brazilian petroleum multinational company, according to decision-makers' preferences regarding operational, political and technological issues.