| Article ID: | iaor1992392 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 7 |
| Start Page Number: | 283 |
| End Page Number: | 294 |
| Publication Date: | Aug 1991 |
| Journal: | Stochastic Models |
| Authors: | McGregor J.R. |
| Keywords: | markov processes, health services |
A stochastic model describing the dynamics of the HIV-seropositive and AIDS population is derived under fairly general conditions. A special case is applied to AIDS data for Alberta and used to predict cumulative AIDS cases, the size of the HIV population, the number of living AIDS cases, cumulative AIDS deaths and number of AIDS deaths by year.