A method for processing the unreliable expert judgments about parameters of probability distributions

A method for combining two types of judgments about an object analyzed, which are elicited from experts, is considered in the paper. It is assumed that the probability distribution of a random variable is known, but its parameters may be determined by experts. The method is based on the use of the imprecise probability theory and allows us to take into account the quality of expert judgments, heterogeneity and imprecision of information supplied by experts. An approach for computing ‘cautious’ expert beliefs under condition that the experts are unknown is studied. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed method.