| Article ID: | iaor20083883 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 175 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 1268 |
| End Page Number: | 1284 |
| Publication Date: | Dec 2006 |
| Journal: | European Journal of Operational Research |
| Authors: | lengin Bur, lengin Fsun, ahin ule nsel |
| Keywords: | time series & forecasting methods |
This paper proposes the use of Bayesian Causal Maps (BCMs) to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. In this study, a model of inflation is initially structured using a cognitive mapping technique; the dependent probabilities of the concepts are then calculated based on the detailed analysis of past data. Finally, a BCM is used to analyze the complex structure of inflation in Turkey. As a result, it will be possible to see the structure of the inflation model and to understand the basic consequences of any strategic change that may occur in the system.