Long-term non-linear model for the power requirement of the Brazilian electricity system

Long-term non-linear model for the power requirement of the Brazilian electricity system

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20083171
Country: Portugal
Volume: 27
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 1
End Page Number: 20
Publication Date: Jun 2007
Journal: Investigao Operacional
Authors: , ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

The formerly closed Brazilian electrical energy market has been disclosed for investors and domestic consumers, which now have choices for their decisions concerning energy sales and purchasing, in long-term contracts. To establish minimal planning condition, suppliers need to forecast the required load in order to project and operate power plants. With the aid of a method that integrates non-linear regression and soft-system methodology, we depict a non-linear model for the gross total electric power requirement, counting on domestic activity, population and human developing index. A goodness-of-fit better than 96% was achieved. The final analysis focused on the strong contingency period occurred in Brazil in 2001.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.