Long-term non-linear model for the power requirement of the Brazilian electricity system

The formerly closed Brazilian electrical energy market has been disclosed for investors and domestic consumers, which now have choices for their decisions concerning energy sales and purchasing, in long-term contracts. To establish minimal planning condition, suppliers need to forecast the required load in order to project and operate power plants. With the aid of a method that integrates non-linear regression and soft-system methodology, we depict a non-linear model for the gross total electric power requirement, counting on domestic activity, population and human developing index. A goodness-of-fit better than 96% was achieved. The final analysis focused on the strong contingency period occurred in Brazil in 2001.