Article ID: | iaor20083171 |
Country: | Portugal |
Volume: | 27 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 1 |
End Page Number: | 20 |
Publication Date: | Jun 2007 |
Journal: | Investigao Operacional |
Authors: | Sellitto Miguel Afonso, Ribeiro Jos Luis Duarte, Petrillo Fabiano |
Keywords: | forecasting: applications |
The formerly closed Brazilian electrical energy market has been disclosed for investors and domestic consumers, which now have choices for their decisions concerning energy sales and purchasing, in long-term contracts. To establish minimal planning condition, suppliers need to forecast the required load in order to project and operate power plants. With the aid of a method that integrates non-linear regression and soft-system methodology, we depict a non-linear model for the gross total electric power requirement, counting on domestic activity, population and human developing index. A goodness-of-fit better than 96% was achieved. The final analysis focused on the strong contingency period occurred in Brazil in 2001.