This study (1)critically reviews existing studies of global trends in population, agriculture, and energy with a view toward showing which studies are most useful for which sorts of studies of global environmental change and sustainable development. (2)Synthesizes a single, internally consistent scenario of global changes in population, agriculture, and energy over the next century for use as a ‘conventional wisdom’ reference case for such studies. (3)Creates a number of ‘surprise-rich’ scenarios of world development for use in exploring unconventional, but not impossible, patterns of human activities that might be useful for exploring the outer limits of global environmental change.
