Efficient generation of cycle time–throughput curves through simulation and metamodeling

A cycle time–throughput (CT–TH) curve, which quantifies the relationship of long-run average cycle time to throughput rate, plays an important role in strategic planning for manufacturing systems. In this paper, a nonlinear regression metamodel supported by queueing theory is developed to represent the underlying CT–TH curve implied by a manufacturing simulation model. To estimate the model efficiently, simulation experiments are built up sequentially using a multistage procedure. Extensive numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure.