| Article ID: | iaor20081879 |
| Country: | United States |
| Volume: | 8 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 31 |
| End Page Number: | 50 |
| Publication Date: | Mar 2007 |
| Journal: | Journal of AsiaPacific Business |
| Authors: | Chen Ying-Chih, Kang Hsin-Hong, Yang Tzer-Chyun |
| Keywords: | health services, forecasting: applications |
The objective of this study is to build a model to forecast the visitor arrivals to China and to examine the impact caused by the SARS incident. Seasonal ARIMA models and seasonal dummy variables are created to build the forecast models, and we use intervention analysis to process the outliers resulting from unexpected incidents. The results reveal that the SARS incident had a considerable impact on the international visitor arrivals to China and caused the figures to drop by at least 42%. The seasonal ARIMA models are also used to forecast the visitor arrivals to China up to the end of 2007.