Capturing the high-risk environment of the transition economy in Bulgaria – a simulation-based DSS

Eastern European countries have undergone a transition from centralized economic planning to more open economic systems. Hard data based upon past experience are inappropriate for decision making in this radically changed environment. A team of Bulgarian and U.S. researchers utilized system dynamics simulation to model the microeconomic environment of a Bulgarian winery expanding into regional and international markets. Expert opinion was provided for both micro- and macroeconomic factors. Given the uncertainty of the data and the ambiguity in the experts' opinions, fuzzy logic was used to model the transitional economic firm's decision making.