A stochastic salvo model for naval surface combat

A stochastic salvo model for naval surface combat

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Article ID: iaor2008860
Country: United States
Volume: 53
Issue: 5
Start Page Number: 830
End Page Number: 841
Publication Date: Sep 2005
Journal: Operations Research
Authors:
Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a stochastic version of the salvo model for modern naval surface combat. We derive expressions for the mean and variance of surviving force strengths and for the probabilities of the possible salvo outcomes in forms simple enough to be implemented in spreadsheet software. Numerical comparisons of the deterministic and stochastic models indicate that while the two models tend to provide similar estimates of the average number of ships surviving a salvo, this average by itself can be highly misleading with respect to the likely outcomes of the battle. Our results also suggest that a navy's preferences for risk (variability) and armament (offensive versus defensive) will depend on not only its mission objectives but also on whether it expects to fight from a position of strength or of weakness.

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