Multiple attribute evaluation of landscape management

Economic approaches to the valuation of ecological services have several limitations. Some of these limitations can be overcome using the multiple attribute decision-making model developed in this paper. The model postulates that a private or public decision-maker selects a site/landscape management plan based on the biophysical and economic attributes of alternative management plans, the decision-maker's preferences for attributes, and constraints on the selection of a management plan. Two cases are examined. Case A is a watershed consisting of publicly owned land that is managed at the site, management unit and landscape scales. Management is based on the philosophy of ecosystem management. Case B is a watershed composed of several privately owned units that are managed at the site scale by decision-makers whose primary motivation is economic profit. The preferred management plan in both cases is determined using a two-stage procedure. The first stage uses a stochastic programming model to identify the most efficient management plans for a site/landscape. The second stage determines which efficient management plan for a site/landscape is preferred by maximizing an expected utility function that is additive in the attributes and assumes that the decision-maker is risk neutral. Whether a land-management plan results in strongly or weakly sustainable resource conditions is evaluated. Strong sustainability requires the probability of exceeding the minimum acceptable value of an attribute to be greater than or equal to a pre-determined reliability level for each attribute. Weak sustainability requires the same condition except that it applies to a composite index of the attributes rather than each attribute. Bayes theorem is used to evaluate uncertainty about whether the state of a landscape is sustainable.