A simulation model for predicting yacht match race outcomes

We outline the development of a model for predicting the outcome of a yacht match race between two competing designs. The model is a fixed-time-increment simulation that accounts for the dynamic performance of each yacht. The wind speed and direction are modelled using hidden Markov chain models. Each yacht is assumed to follow a fixed sailing strategy determined by a set of simple decision rules. The simulation models both yachts simultaneously and accounts for interactions between them – for example, when they cross. The model is illustrated by applying it to International America's Cup Class designs.