A Bayesian decision model for a deteriorating repairable system

This paper presents the development of a decision model to examine the optimal repair action for a deteriorating system. In order to make a reasonable decision, it is necessary to perform an analysis of the uncertainties embedded in deterioration and to evaluate the repair actions based on the expected future cost. Focusing on the power law failure model, the uncertainties related to deterioration are analyzed based on the Bayesian approach. In addition, we develop a decision model for the optimal repair action by applying a repair cost function. A case study is given to illustrate a decision-making process by analyzing the loss incurred due to deterioration.