Monotone forecasts

Monotone forecasts

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Article ID: iaor20073200
Country: United States
Volume: 52
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 478
End Page Number: 486
Publication Date: May 2004
Journal: Operations Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

In this paper we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the distribution of demand in the future to be stochastically increasing in the demand that has been observed in the past. We base our analysis on the multiperiod inventory model examined by Eppen and Iyer. In the process of establishing the necessary and sufficient conditions we develop a new property called the sequential monotone likelihood ratio property.

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