A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball

A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor20073004
Country: United States
Volume: 53
Issue: 8
Start Page Number: 788
End Page Number: 803
Publication Date: Dec 2006
Journal: Naval Research Logistics
Authors: ,
Keywords: markov processes, gaming, statistics: decision
Abstract:

Each year, more than $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Division 1 men's basketball tournament. Most of that money is wagered in pools where the object is to correctly predict winners of each game, with emphasis on the last four teams remaining (the Final Four). In this paper, we present a combined logistic regression/Markov chain model for predicting the outcome of NCAA tournament games given only basic input data. Over the past 6 years, our model has been significantly more successful than the other common methods such as tournament seedings, the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, the RPI, and the Sagarin and Massey ratings.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.