Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting

Uncertainty analysis in political forecasting

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Article ID: iaor20072533
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 42
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 25
End Page Number: 35
Publication Date: Oct 2006
Journal: Decision Support Systems
Authors: ,
Keywords: fuzzy sets, time series & forecasting methods, politics
Abstract:

Medicine, engineering, and finance are traditional fields for the application of Fuzzy Logic (FL); however, in social sciences, the utilization of FL can be intensely explored as a valuable analysis instrument. Joining fuzzy with Multiple Criteria Decision Making, the natural complex and uncertain criteria of social problems can be adequately explored. A suitable uncertainty analysis is the focal point in the social field. In this direction, an intelligent computational method for election forecasting is proposed as a practical result of this research. The main objective is to present a more flexible methodology for political assessment comparing to traditional methods.

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