Probability distribution function for damage expectancy

When the military units plan precise engagements with limited assets, the commander should have not only an assessment of mission success, but also the uncertainty in that assessment. In this article, the authors examine the method of dividing the mission into a series of phases; often called either planning factors or kill chain. The expected mission success is the product of the probabilities of success in each phase. For kinetic attacks, this product is commonly referred to as damage expectancy, which specifies the probability of achieving a prescribed damage criterion. The authors show how to combine the uncertainty in the estimated probabilities of success for each phase to determine a probability distribution function for the probability of mission success. Their technique enables planners to provide the uncertainty in the assessed mission success to the commander.