The dynamics of escalation

The paper uses a theory of moves framework to explore the dynamics of two-stage deterrence games. The present study differs from other applications of this framework to national security questions in that the structural characteristics of two distinct deterrence games are linked by way of a common outcome. It is through this linkage process that the dynamics of the escalatory process are analyzed. Several interesting insights into the nature of these games were discovered. First, it was found that deterrence is stable, and escalation is not rational, as long as neither player in the second game possesses a credible retaliatory threat. Interestingly, no such pattern exists when each player’s threat in the second stage is credible. It was also discovered that escalation dominance confers a distinct advantage upon a player. In all cases the player with escalation dominance ‘wins’ the game.