A dynamic conceptual model to explore technology-based perturbations to a complex system: the Land Force

Conceptual models are the critical first step to gaining distilled insights of complex systems. We use influence diagrams to link intuitive measures for Land Force actions with the inputs of the environment, and friendly and threat force actions. This approach provides a rich semiquantitative model that allows exploration of the effect of perturbation introduced through the adoption of enhanced equipment, innovative operational concepts, or novel technology concepts. We have built a construct for the Army based upon a set of influence diagrams for the skills of: engagement; information collection; sustainment; communication; protection; movement; and decision making. These produce mental maps that link military technologies, desired effects, and higher-level outcomes. Thus, there is a gradation of type within the influence diagram with position the key to the nature of the variable. In this paper we describe these models and how we use them to deduce likely future military concepts through ‘what if’ contemplations of possible technology or environmental changes. In reverse, this process advises on the criticality of the constituent components. Inter-relationships between various skills and issues associated with balancing requirements between these will be highlighted. This work thus leads to further distillation-like simulations such as agent-based modeling.