Market-based early warning indicators of famine for the pastoral households of the Sahel

Using a theoretical model of the pastoral production system, this research identifies some specific animal price ratios which can be utilized as early warnings signs of a food crisis. The quantity and quality of animals offered for sale, herd size and its composition, relative prices of animal types with differential drought and feed resistivity but similar demand and supply elasticities should be important indicators of food stress faced by the pastoral community. The time series of animal prices during the famine of 1984–1985 in Niger provide an excellent standard to test the empirical validity and sensitivity of the early warning indicators.