Multi-criteria policy scenario analysis for public regulation of irrigated agriculture

This paper presents a methodological approach to the analysis of various combinations of agricultural policy and irrigation water-pricing alternatives. Policy scenarios are simulated by means of multi-criteria mathematical programming models capable of simulating the behaviour of farmers. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) has been chosen as the methodological framework for model-building at farm level. Modelling representative farms in this way enables differential impacts of scenarios considered to be simulated and, through a process of aggregation, global results at basin level to be obtained. Results obtained from the simulation models are not only related to farmers' decision variables (crop mixes). A set of relevant economic, social and environmental attributes related to public criteria can also be obtained as a way of measuring the efficiency of the suggested policy scenarios. This methodology has been applied to the analysis of irrigated agriculture in the Douro Basin in Spain. The results show the usefulness of this methodological approach to evaluate the impact of policies and highlight the fact that water pricing and agricultural policy need to be closely coordinated in order to meet the EU's policy objectives for the irrigated agriculture sector.