Random effects model for the reliability management of modules of a fighter aircraft

The operational availability of fighter aircraft plays an important role in the national defense. Low operational availability of fighter aircraft can cause many problems and ROKA (Republic of Korea Airforce) needs proper strategies to improve the current practice of reliability management by accurately forecasting both MTBF (mean time between failure) and MTTR (mean time to repair). In this paper, we develop a random effects model to forecast both MTBF and MTTR of installed modules of fighter aircraft based on their characteristics and operational conditions. Advantage of using such a random effects model is the ability of accommodating not only the individual characteristics of each module and operational conditions but also the uncertainty caused by random error that cannot be explained by them. Our study is expected to contribute to ROKA in improving operational availability of fighter aircrafts and establishing effective logistics management.