Analysis of common cause failure using two-step expectation and maximization algorithm

Analysis of common cause failure using two-step expectation and maximization algorithm

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Article ID: iaor20063106
Country: South Korea
Volume: 30
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 63
End Page Number: 71
Publication Date: Jun 2005
Journal: Journal of the Korean ORMS Society
Authors: , ,
Keywords: nuclear power
Abstract:

In the field of nuclear reactor safety study, common cause failures (CCFs) became significant contributors to system failure probability and core damage frequency in most probabilistic risk assessments. However, it is hard to estimate the reliability of such a system, because of the dependency of components caused by CCFs. In order to analyze the system, we propose an analytic method that can find the parameters with lack of raw data. This study adopts the shock model in which the failure probability increases as the shock is cumulated. We use two-step Expectation and Maximization (EM) algorithm to find the unknown parameters. In order to verify the analysis result, we perform the simulation under same environment. This approach might be helpful to build the defensive strategy for the CCFs.

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