Modelling the impact of interventions on the dynamics in village poultry systems

There are many technical possibilities to improve free-range and backyard poultry keeping. Rural households, however, are not adopting these technologies widely. This paper presents a model approach for ex ante evaluation of interventions in village poultry systems. The dynamic deterministic computer model considers mortality, egg production, reproduction, offtake, and their interrelationships. In the base situation, the model reflects the behaviour of a relatively stable village poultry flock. The model was used to explore how interventions influence the dynamics of a village poultry flock. Over the simulated period of three years, NCD (Newcastle Disease) vaccination, daytime housing, supplementary feeding, and control of broodiness each had a positive effect on bird offtake, egg production, egg offtake, and flock size. Crossbreeding had a highly negative effect on these key variables. The impact of interventions is also related to the use of the available resources. Cost–benefit calculations for the Tigray region in Ethiopia and village poultry research sites in Kenya indicated that NCD vaccinations were economically most effective. Housing and crossbreeding had a highly negative impact on net returns. When applied with situation-specific input data, the model can be used in the first stages of research and development approaches to support decisions on priorities of projects in village poultry production.