Model alignment of anthrax attack simulations

Model alignment of anthrax attack simulations

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Article ID: iaor20062160
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 41
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 654
End Page Number: 668
Publication Date: Mar 2006
Journal: Decision Support Systems
Authors: , , , ,
Keywords: simulation: applications
Abstract:

This paper describes our experience aligning two simulation models of disease progression after biological attacks. The first model is the Incubation–Prodromal–Fulminant (IPF) model, a variation of the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model, and the second is an agent-based model called BioWar. We ran BioWar simulations to see whether the results will, at the population level, match the IPF results. We showed that BioWar can generate population level results that are close to IPF. In addition, BioWar outputs emergent properties that cannot be simulated in IPF. This study provides insights for modelers who are developing simulation tools for investigating bioterrorism attacks and for decision makers who use these tools.

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