Strategy and prediction: Predicting total usage of a common pool resource

In this article we are dealing with the question how individuals forecast mean behaviour of their opponents if they are subject to a strategic situation. As an example we take a common pool resource management task. In a series of experiments data on individual actions, collective actions, and individual forecasts are collected. In a first step we try to find regularities in the course of collective actions. Astonishingly autoregressive models yield poor descriptions; although a pattern of alternating changes can be found that cannot be explained by random. In a second step we apply regression models in order to explain the predictions the subjects have made for forecasting the collective action. Observing the poor performance of these models we compare the results of simple rules (heuristics) for forecasting with the data. The third and last step of our analysis consists in an analysis of the aggregate judgements. It reveals that in contrast to the general expectation the aggregate judgement is not more accurate than individual judgements are.