Mathematical modelling and simulation for planning critical care capacity

Mathematical modelling and simulation for planning critical care capacity

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Article ID: iaor2006211
Country: United States
Volume: 58
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 320
End Page Number: 327
Publication Date: Apr 2003
Journal: Anaesthesia
Authors: , , , , ,
Abstract:

Using average number of patients expected in a year, average length of stay and a target occupancy level to calculate the number of critical care beds needed is mathematically incorrect because of nonlinearity and variability in the factors that control length of stay. For a target occupancy in excess of 80%, this simple calculation will typically underestimate the number of beds required. More seriously, it provides no quantitative guidance information about other aspects of critical care demand such as the numbers of emergency patients transferred, deferral rates for elective patients and overall utilisation. The combination of appropriately analysing raw data and detailed mathematical modelling provides a much better method for estimating numbers of beds required. We describe this modelling approach together with evidence of its performance.

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