| Article ID: | iaor20053208 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 20 |
| Issue: | 4 |
| Start Page Number: | 697 |
| End Page Number: | 711 |
| Publication Date: | Oct 2004 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Authors: | Dixon Mark J., Pope Peter F. |
| Keywords: | forecasting: applications |
In this paper, we evaluate the economic significance of statistical forecasts of UK Association Football match outcomes in relation to betting market prices. We present a detailed comparison of odds set by different bookmakers in relation to forecast model predictions, and analyse the potential for arbitrage across firms. We also examine extreme odds biases. A detailed re-examination of match result odds and a new examination of correct score odds for the period 1993 to 1996 suggest that the market is inefficient.