A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

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Article ID: iaor20053198
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 160
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 308
End Page Number: 324
Publication Date: Jan 2005
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: , ,
Keywords: decision theory: multiple criteria
Abstract:

This paper proposes a multi-stage framework for intelligent decision support. The proposed framework integrates case-based reasoning and fuzzy multicriteria decision making techniques. It potentially leads to more accurate, flexible and efficient retrieval of alternatives that are most similar and most useful to the current decision situation. Additionally, the framework provides intelligent assistance in articulating domain expert's preferences through outranking relations. We illustrated the proposed approach in the context of tropical cyclone prediction. Ten years of historical observation data about tropical cyclones was represented within fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problem. We describe a prototype intelligent decision support system, which helps the forecaster in retrieving best-fitted solutions in terms of both usefulness and similarity to the current observed case.

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