Decision analysis and real options: A discrete time approach to real option valuation

Decision analysis and real options: A discrete time approach to real option valuation

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Article ID: iaor20052630
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 135
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 21
End Page Number: 39
Publication Date: Mar 2005
Journal: Annals of Operations Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: investment, programming: dynamic
Abstract:

In this paper we seek to enhance the real options methodology developed by Copeland and Antikarov with traditional decision analysis tools to propose a discrete time method that allows the problem to be specified and solved with off the shelf decision analysis software. This method uses dynamic programming with an innovative algorithm to model the project's stochastic process and real options with decision trees. The method is computationally intense, but simpler and more intuitive than traditional methods, thus allowing for greater flexibility in the modeling of the problem.

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