Hierarchies with dependence of technological alternatives: A cross-impact hierarchy process

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a well-known and useful decision making tool, has been applied to R&D project selection. The objective of this paper is to develop an extended model of the AHP which is linked to cross-impact analysis, called a cross-impact hierarchy process (CHP), to assist in the ranking of a large number of dependent technological alternatives. In reality, dependence with respect to such factors as cost, technology, and positive synergy may exist among R&D projects. For example, a specific R&D project can occur either prior to or after the anticipated time, because it may be affected by the occurrence of other projects. In that case, cross-impacts that imply mutual influences among R&D projects need to be considered and evaluated. As a way to capture their cross-impacts in this study, we think about the future occurrence probability of each project. A step-by-step numerical example of the CHP is also presented.