Comparative modelling of interregional transport flows: Applications to multimodal European freight transport

Comparative modelling of interregional transport flows: Applications to multimodal European freight transport

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Article ID: iaor20051864
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 155
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 584
End Page Number: 602
Publication Date: Jun 2004
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: , ,
Keywords: neural networks
Abstract:

This paper aims to compare the descriptive and predictive power of two classes of statistical estimation models for multimodal network flows, viz. the family of discrete choice models (i.e., logit and probit models) and the neural network model. The application concerns a large dataset on interregional European freight flows for two commodity categories (food and chemicals). After a concise exposition of policy issues, methodological and modelling questions and the database, a variety of experiments is carried out. The results show that in general the predictive potential of neural network models is higher than that of discrete choice analysis. The statistical results are also used to investigate the implications of various road charge systems (e.g., eco-taxes) on specific spatial segments of the European road network.

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