A hypergame study of Operation BARBAROSSA

Decision-making in conflict situations is a most perplexing problem. The parties involved have a variety of aims, some of which are apparently impossible to satisfy simultaneously. Such situations are prone to considerable complexity. Not only do they involve the problems of proposing options and selecting amongst them, in an often fast changing situation, but they also involve the difficulties of identifying the other parties involved and making judgements about their options and preferences. Hence conflicts are notoriously difficult to model in a satisfactory manner. Hypergame Theory is one method of dealing with this type of problem. This paper demonstrates the practical application of such an approach in analysing the preparatory phases of Operation BARBAROSSA, the code name for the German invasion of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1941.