Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts

Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor2005617
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 19
Issue: 4
Start Page Number: 735
End Page Number: 742
Publication Date: Oct 2003
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

A number of studies have sought to determine whether economic forecasts had predictive value. These analyses used a single statistical methodology based on the independence of the actual and predicted changes. This paper questions whether the observed results are robust if alternative statistical methodologies are used to analyze this question. Procedures suggested by Cumby and Modest as well as rationality tests were applied to two data sets. Sometimes the conclusions differ depending on the procedures that are used. The results yield a guideline for the diagnostics that should be employed in testing for the value of economic forecasts.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.