A comparison for forecasting methods for hotel revenue management

A comparison for forecasting methods for hotel revenue management

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Article ID: iaor20043678
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 19
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 401
End Page Number: 415
Publication Date: Jul 2003
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: time series & forecasting methods, yield management
Abstract:

The arrivals forecast is one of the key inputs for a successful hotel revenue management system, but no research on the best forecasting method has been conducted. In this research, we used data from Choice Hotels and Marriott Hotels to test a variety of forecasting methods and to determine the most accurate method. Preliminary results using the Choice Hotel data show that pickup methods and regression produced the lowest error, while the booking curve and combination forecasts produced fairly inaccurate results. The more in-depth study using the Marriott Hotel data showed that exponential smoothing, pickup, and moving average models were the most robust.

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