| Article ID: | iaor20042729 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 148 |
| Issue: | 2 |
| Start Page Number: | 268 |
| End Page Number: | 276 |
| Publication Date: | Jul 2003 |
| Journal: | European Journal of Operational Research |
| Authors: | Koning Ruud H., Koolhaas Michael, Renes Gusta, Ridder Geert |
| Keywords: | simulation: applications |
In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’ Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.