Persistence in sequences of football match results: A Monte Carlo analysis

Persistence in sequences of football match results: A Monte Carlo analysis

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Article ID: iaor20042727
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 148
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 247
End Page Number: 256
Publication Date: Jul 2003
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: simulation: applications
Abstract:

An empirical investigation of persistence in sequences of consecutive match results in (association) football is presented. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to generate sequences of simulated match results for heterogeneous teams under assumptions of zero persistence. A comparison between the simulated results and 30 years of observed match results data for the English Premier League and Football League provides evidence of a negative persistence effect.

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