| Article ID: | iaor20042707 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 147 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 187 |
| End Page Number: | 197 |
| Publication Date: | May 2003 |
| Journal: | European Journal of Operational Research |
| Authors: | Shahani A.K., Harper P.R. |
| Keywords: | decision: studies, simulation: applications, developing countries |
The spread of the HIV epidemic in India has been ferocious in recent years and if it continues along its present trajectory, the consequences will be truly disastrous. Designed for, and in conjunction with, different HIV and AIDS clinics in Mumbai, India, a patient progress operational model of patient care has been developed to predict future patient numbers and associated health care costs. The suitably detailed simulation model has been designed with flexibility, ease-of-use and lack of data in mind for developing country conditions. The model has been shown to yield a useful tool to aid decision-making by clinicians and managers, thus helping in the provision of effective and efficient care to the many HIV and AIDS patients throughout Mumbai and potentially the rest of India. An illustrative use of the model is demonstrated through a case study working with one of the participating Mumbai clinics.