Article ID: | iaor20041374 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 21 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 697 |
End Page Number: | 706 |
Publication Date: | Aug 1996 |
Journal: | Mathematics of Operations Research |
Authors: | Lehrer E., Smorodinsky R. |
Keywords: | measurement |
Two measures, μ and &mutilde;, are updated as more information arrives. If with μ-probability 1, the predictions of future events according to both measures become close, as time passes, we say that &mutilde; merges to μ. Blackwell and Dubins showed that if μ is absolutely continuous with respect to &mutilde; then &mutilde; merges to μ. Restricting the definition to prediction of near future events and to a full sequence of times yields the new notion of almost weak merging (AWM), presented here. We introduce a necessary and sufficient condition and show many cases with no absolute continuity that exhibit AWM. We show, for instance, that the fact that &mutilde; is diffused around μ implies AWM.