| Article ID: | iaor20033177 |
| Country: | Netherlands |
| Volume: | 121 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 21 |
| End Page Number: | 32 |
| Publication Date: | Jul 2003 |
| Journal: | Annals of Operations Research |
| Authors: | Anderson E.J., Philpott Andrew B. |
| Keywords: | electricity, New Zealand |
In an electricity pool market the market distribution function gives the probability that a generator offering a certain quantity of power at a certain price will not be dispatched all of this quantity by the pool. It represents the uncertainty in a pool market associated with the offers of the other agents as well as demand. We present a general Bayesian update scheme for market distribution functions. To illustrate the approach a particular form of this procedure is applied to real data obtained from a New Zealand electricity generator.