Modelling the impact of energy taxation

Energy taxation in Sweden is complicated and strongly guides and governs district energy production. Consequently, there is a need for methods for accurate calculation and analysis of effects that different energy tax schemes may have on district energy utilities. Here, a practicable method to analyse influence of such governmental policy measures is demonstrated. The Swedish Government has for some years now been working on a reform of energy taxation, and during this process, several interest groups have expressed their own proposals for improving and developing the system of energy taxation. Together with the present system of taxation, four new alternatives, including the proposed directive of the European Commission, are outlined in the paper. In a case study, an analysis is made of how the different tax alternatives may influence the choice of profitable investments and use of energy carriers in a medium-sized district-heating utility. The calculations are made with a linear-programming model framework. By calculating suitable types and sizes of new investments, if any, and the operation of existing and potential plants, total energy costs are minimized. Results of the analysis include the most profitable investments, which fuel should be used, roughly when during a year plants should be in operation, and at what output. In most scenarios, the most profitable measure is to invest in a waste incineration plant. However, a crucial assumption is, with reference to the new Swedish waste disposal act, a significant income from incinerating refuse. Without this income, different tax schemes result in different technical solutions being most profitable. An investment in cogeneration seems possible in only one scenario. It is also found that particular features of some alternatives seem to oppose both main governmental policy goals, and intentions of the district heating company.