Blocking probabilities in mobile communications networks with time-varying rates and redialing subscribers

Call-blocking probabilities are among the key performance measures in mobile communications networks. For their analysis, mobile networks can be modelled as networks of Erlang loss queues with common capacity restrictions dictated by the allocation of frequencies to the cells of the network. However, due to the time-varying load offered to the cells of such networks, blocking probabilities usually cannot be obtained in closed form. The relation between networks of Erlang loss queues and networks of infinite server queues, for which the time-dependent occupancy distribution is multidimensional Poisson, suggests to use that distribution as approximate distribution for the network of Erlang loss queues. This paper extends this so-called Modified Offered Load (MOL) approximation to networks of Erlang loss queues, and also allows subscribers that find their call blocked to redial to continue their call. For Global System for Mobiles (GSM) networks operating under Fixed Channel Allocation, it is shown that blocking probabilities are increasing in the redial rates so that the MOL approximation that is most accurate for maximal redial rates turns out to be fairly accurate for the resulting upper bound for blocking probabilities. The accuracy is explicitly evaluated in an application of the results towards blocking probabilities in a hot spot travelling along a road through a GSM network.